The more things change

The 2008 numbers are nowhere near final, so the tables below will change a bit when all is said and done, but they probably won't change enough to alter whatever interpretation you project upon them. In 2000, there was a hard fought presidential election in which Ohio was a swing state. In the 12th District, the Republican-held seat was open following the retirement of John Kasich. State Rep. Pat Tiberi, the Republican, faced off against Franklin Co. Commissioner Maryellen O'Shaughnessy, the Democrat. Bush won Ohio, and Tiberi took the 12th, losing in Franklin, but running up the score in Delaware and Licking Counties.

In 2008, 4 term incumbent Pat Tiberi outspent his opponent David Robinson 10-1, leading to all major pundits rating the seat "Safe Republican" until the days immediately preceding the election. Robinson was completely unknown before the campaign started, and even began the primary battling a party-endorsed candidate. It was once again a Presidential year, with Obama taking Ohio this time.

How did these very different situations play out?

2008	F	D	L	Tot
Rob.	101140	24221	15620	140981
Tib.	95419	59623	34201	189243
3rd	5873	2589	1504	9966
2008	F	D	L	Tot
Rob.	49.96%	28.02%	30.43%	41.44%
Tib.	47.14%	68.98%	66.64%	55.63%
3rd	2.90%	3.00%	2.93%	2.93%
2000	F	D	L	Tot
O'S.	87255	15594	12223	115072
Tib.	79289	36539	23414	139242
3rd	5793	1658	1259	8710
2000	F	D	L	Tot
O'S.	50.63%	28.99%	33.13%	43.75%
Tib.	46.01%	67.93%	63.46%	52.94%
3rd	3.36%	3.08%	3.41%	3.31%