Shamansky and Tiberi in Statistical Tie in Independent Poll

Majority Watch/Constituent Dynamics has been polling competetive House races all year, but they finally released their first poll of OH-12. Others got the news before I did (sometimes a nice dinner out with the family gets in the way of the scoop), but they seem to have missed a very major point: Although the weighted sample shows Tiberi ahead 51-46, the Margin of Error is +/- 3.09, meaning that the margin on the spread is actually 6.2, meaning that this poll puts the race within the margin of error, even with a 1000+ representative sample.

That's what they call a statistical dead heat.

The crosstabs are strange, with younger women( less than 60 years old), typically a Dem constituency, going +19 for Tiberi. It's even stranger given that men in this age range are only a +11 for the Pa(rro)t (The 60+ crowd is overwhelmingly pro-Shamansky). Overall, this is a much rosier picture than the pulled-out-of-my-rear-end guess from this weekend.

This is no longer a longshot. This is going down to the wire. We can do this.