Friday, October 27, 2006

Shamansky news from around the blogosphere

Bob Shamansky debated Pat Tiberi at Nationwide Arena on Tuesday. I weighed in with my impressions. A blogger at The Ohio Conservative was also at the debate and gave his take on events. Strangely enough in these modern times, the liberal (me), the conservative (TOC), and the nominally neutral and dispassionate journalist (JH at the Dispatch), all saw pretty much the same debate. Pat Tiberi is a Republican. Bob Shamansky is a Democrat. Because of this, I thought Bob came across much better than Pat, TOC thought vice-versa, and the headlines blared "civil."

Under these circumstances, though, you've got to give Bob the edge. The three analyses I'm discussing are by watchers of politics and government, and it looks like the judges are scoring it a draw. Especially this year, though, a tie in the debate is a loss for the incumbent. For Jane Q. Public this year, the only thing stopping her from voting her dissatisfaction with Republican incumbents is the worry that the Democratic challengers may not be credible candidates or Congressional material. That fear is gone now.

A more interesting discussion of fear and the OH-12 debate was brought up at Buckeye State Blog, where folks captured the Tiberi quote about being attacked by blogs and websites:

As I said in the comments to that post, I couldn't help but think he must be in part referring to (ahem) Blue Bexley. Although I truly respect and have been inspired by the work that Eric has done at Plunderbund before moving up to ProgressOhio, and the work that Brian was doing full-time at OH-12.US before taking over much of Brian's work at Plunderbund, I think I've spent more time mocking Pa(rro)t than anyone else over the last two months.

Of course, when I first started trying to find blogs covering the 12th district, people at DailyKos pointed me toward Licking County Pro-Active Citizens. And like DailyKos, LiCoPAC has recently become more active once again in discussing the race, including a post aggregating info on several ways to get involved with Bob Shamansky's campaign, including this morning's 9am Consortium for Good Government Candidate Forum in Bexley's backyard at the JCC, along with some of the volunteer opportunities distributed by the campaign.

They also report on Charlie Cook's statement that the Shamansky-Tiberi race is 50-50. The 10/25 Cook Report doesn't reflect that assessment, but perhaps Charlie knows something that he isn't sharing. And for all of you folks who are getting to Blue Bexley by searching on 'Shamansky Tiberi Polling Data' or variations on that theme, I must confess that I'm just as curious as y'all. My very amateurish reasoning leads me to believe that if Tiberi's internals had him up by double digits, that would have been leaked. If Bob's internals had the margin at 6 or below, that would've leaked. So my best out-of-my-rear-end-guess would be 47-40 with 13% undecided. Under that type of scenario, Tiberi is definitely vulnerable, but it would require undecideds breaking our way and really good Franklin County turnout. So, even though there is little reason beyond my musings to assume the accuracy of that assessment, if you've read this far and still put any credibility into my guess at all, you'll get a yard sign, bring up how funny Bob Shamansky's rubber stamp ad is, and ask if anyone has seen his new Iraq ad when the cheesy ads from other races are coming on while you watch the Buckeyes with your friends tomorrow. Then you'll pitch in an hour of your time during one of the opportunities afforded to you.

Because we're up against this.

Or you could just shut me up with any real poll numbers that I may have missed.

And best of luck to the Bexley Lions, who can wrap up one of their best football regular seasons in years and launch themselves into the playoffs with a victory tonight at Columbus Academy.

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