Thursday, December 21, 2006

OH-12 Questions and Speculation

So with a little distance and some time to kill waiting on an update from Bev Campbell (she was meeting with folks yesterday to determine options), my thoughts are drifting to 2008. When most folks think of 2008, they're thinking about the White House. Me, I'm wondering about OH-12.

We had a good candidate with a good staff and a bunch of cash (although not as much as the incumbent). We had one of the most consistent supporters of the President as an opponent when the President's approval rating was lower than Nixon's. We were fighting against a Republican in Ohio in a year where Republicans were associated with all manners of corruption, especially in Ohio. We had all of these things working for us in a district that saw John Kerry take 48% of the Presidential vote in '04.

Bob Shamansky lost to Pat Tiberi by 14%.
Edward S. Brown, spending about 1/10th of one percent of what the Shamansky Campaign spent, got 38% of the district vote in '04, compared to Shamansky's 43%.

So, I'm looking for some opinions. Is Tiberi beatable? If not, why were/are so many of us so mistaken about that fact? If so, what went wrong in this election, when we were running downhill? Can those things be fixed? Given the amount of time and effort Tiberi expended this go-round, is anyone interested in the partial victory of tying down resources (e.g., no Shamansky would have meant fat contributions to people like Deb Pryce)?

After answering any or all of those questions, who would you like to see run in '08?

'08 seems like it's a long way off, especially because here in the 20th State House district, the lights have not been extinguished in the 2006 election. But in 2008 the top of the ballot will be Prez, and then... Senator, gov, SOS/Treas/AG/Aud,... U.S. House.

So, these 18 races will be the #2 race on their ballots, and as such I expect them to start drawing attention early. And if it is decided that it's worth another run at PT, it might well take an 18-month effort.

So to recap: let me know if it's possible to win, if so how, and given how, who?

And if anyone knows an email address for Drew Tappan, if you could drop me a line at bluebexley AT gmail DOT com, I'd appreciate it.

16 comments:

Abbey said...

Bev Campbell in '08 for the 12th US Congressional District !!

Anonymous said...

Brian Eastman, Labor Relations Administrator for the Dept. of Natural Resources is saying that he has been recommended for the Chief of Human Resources at DNR and the Director of the Office of Collective Bargaining. This past July, Blackwell asked him to be Director of OCB if he won the election. Since Stickland became Governor, he has been trying to hide the fact that he is a Republican and his strong ties to the party. Not only is he a republican but he worked on the National Republican Fundraising committee all through the 80's and 90's. Get the word out.....he would not serve either agency well.

bev campbell said...

Who is Drew Tappan?

Political Outcast said...

How does 'anonymous' know that this Eastman fellow would not be a good choice?

bonobo said...

Abbey: my preference would be for Bev to run again for the State House seat. Preferably as an incumbent, but even running as a challenger again would have its advantages (see PBD's comments on FL-13 for that argument).

Anonymous: Please use a handle other than 'anonymous' when posting a comment. Nobody needs your real name, but when everybody posts as 'anonymous,' dialogue rapidly becomes quite difficult. Furthermore, I understand that there is no way for a person to post here other than in a comment thread, but I would appreciate it if comments were connected to the original post or one of the prior comments. If you think something is an interesting and appropriate subject for posting here, drop me an email at bluebexley AT gmail DOT com. As for getting the word out, while I have no particular reason to doubt what you're saying, I need to independently corroborate your assertions first, and right now, I've got no time. I'm sorry.

Bev: Drew Tappan was one of the senior staff on the Shamansky campaign, and he was the guy in charge of internet outreach (i.e. 'blogger relations').

P.O.: I'm not taking sides here, but I'd respectfully request that you let this one go for now. Given my comments above, I'll let you two have a chance to duke it out on a separate comment thread soon.

Bev Campbell said...

Your comments about the arguments for running again for the statehouse seat, i.e. FL-13, make lots of sense.

And, that's who I thought Drew Tappan was.

windtalker said...

I would love to see Emily Kreider run in '08 for the 12th or maybe the 19th house, but my thinking is she will now run again or wate and run for the 3rd again on 2010. If Bev Campbell is going to run again for the 20th in '08 maybe that guy who worked for Kreider will run are at least help Campbell. Whats his name, Rodger Moore? I hear he did a great job for Kreider and he thinks outside the box.

farmer said...

Marian Harris did a tremendous job running for the 19th Ohio House district this time around. She increased the Democratic performance by about 10 points. I would like to see her run again in 2008 for that same seat. Flowers is term limited after this term, so Marian will have an even better chance at it and I believe she could win an open seat.

I'm not sure Emily wants anything to do with politics at this point. Last I heard she was sorely disappointed with the whole thing. And it seems like she withdrew from everything early in October. She probably would have done considerably better had she shown up at some of the candidate nights and events through October. I think she let the Republican attacks get to her.

Political Outcast said...

Farmer,

She lost by 10+ pts. If she would have participated, she may have lost by 5-7pts. Her lack of participation probably made no difference.

Farmer said...

So what do you think did make the difference in Emily's race?

windtalker said...

Emily lost by less than 10 points. She beat Goodman in 101 of the 300 + Prec. all in all she did well when you thank about it. Goodman spent over 1,000,000 bucks on TV were as Emily only rased 150,000 bucks. The final vote was Kreider 46.7%.

jake said...

The difference in Emily's race. MONEY!!!!!!!!. Goodman had it Kreider did not have it. Also wating till the last 2 weeks hurt her. The Dem party did not help till the last 2 weeks with a few mailings, people were voting 35 days before the 8th of Nov. The Sen. caucuse and the Ohio Dem party let Kreider down by not steping up and giving her money for TV time. Goodman spent over 1,000,000 bucks on TV. Emily Kreider will not run again. I think She ran a great race, with the money and TV time she would have kicked Goodman's butt with her great Ground Game.

Anonymous said...

Bev, what are your plans you spoke of on another post and bonobo is currently waiting on? I thought they were supposed to come out mid-week?

Bev Campbell said...

We hoped to have our plans solidified by mid-week, but its taking a bit longer to collect all the information necessary. So, it will be a few more days. Beyond the questionable vote count, there are many other factors that must be considered. Believe me if I tell you, this electoral purgatory has not been at all enjoyable.

Regardless of wheher we file a formal election contest, I can pledge to you that I will not disappear; I will continue to fight for the people of our district and our state. And who knows where that will go?!?!?

However, for the next couple of days, I am going to do absolutely nothing political. I am going to immerse myself in my family and the holiday, and maybe even go over to the homeless camps on the west side with some blankets, small gifts and food.

I wish for you the most blessed and memorable of holidays with your family and loved ones around you!

A Very Merry Christmas!

Abbey said...

I'd like to reveal a counter point made against the analysis of the Florida 13th district race that was published on the Psychobilly Democrat Blog.

http://psychobillydem.blogspot.com/2006/12/thoughts-on-fl-13.html
-----------------------
Poster "Get a Backbone" wrote:

"How will anything ever improve if Democratic Party candidates never stand-up and fight back?

Your logic suggesting that candidates who lose due to election fraud, should tuck tail and zip their lips is erroneous and frankly very cowardly.

These Democratic Party victims of crime should speak-up and file legal actions. That way federal courts can enforce rules of discovery for legal teams and election reform groups to gather all evidence necessary to demonstrate how voting fraud occurs and how the election system can and should be improved.

Give the judicial branch of government a fighting chance to demonstrate its intended function of enforcing checks and balances on the legislative and executive branchs as well as the partisan interests that control, manipulate and steal elections (ie - Ken Blackwell in Ohio)"
-------------------
I realize Bev Campbell needs to decompress a bit after such an extremely stressful campaign and recount. Also, I realize she has matters such as family to consider.

However, as I've stated earlier, Bev Campbell has the best situation that I've ever seen to contest the Franklin County Board of Elections results.

I absolutely realize that Bev is not taking this fact lightly. But I challenge everyone reading this to offer Bev support so that she has the best situation possible to do what she wants to do deep down. Ideally, I know Bev truly wants to contest the election results.

I have been encouraging her to go for it... will all of you?

Anonymous said...

no