Monday, August 25, 2008

Franklin Appeals Court Race, Nancy Garland, connecting some dots.

A thoughtful reader has pointed out that I could have been more specific and more explicit about the reasons a Goodman victory in the Court of Appeals race could potentially be bad for Democrats trying to get and maintain Statehouse majorities:

If Goodman does not win his race, he will be term-limited out of the State Senate in 2010. Although Goodman has made strong showings in his two wins, the district is vulnerable to flipping with a strong Democrat and no incumbent. If Goodman does leave for the bench, the GOP will appoint a successor to serve out Goodman's term, who will run as an incumbent in 2010.

Of course, to really play this game well, the GOP will want to take an officeholder who is term-limited out of his/her current position in 2010, and put them into the Senate seat, creating a stronger incumbent for the Senate race, and allowing them to appoint another Republican into that officeholder's seat (likely pending a special election, I'll have to check), mirroring the process. Are there any potential candidates within the 3rd Senate district for this role? Yes, Jim McGregor cannot serve beyond 2010 in the 20th House district, making him an ideal GOP candidate for appointment to a vacant Senate seat if both he and Goodman win their respective elections.

Of course, if McGregor wins and leaves, a House seat that would have been at worst open and should have been a Dem incumbent could instead then sport a Republican incumbent on the ballot in 2010.

My guess is that Goodman will be the favorite in his Appeals Court race. Thus, the best chance for getting and holding both the 20th House and the 3rd Senate districts lies with a Nancy Garland victory over McGregor in November. The term limit dominoes make this race not only one of the most interesting, but really and truly one of the most important.

1 comment:

Rog said...

Larry Flowers (R) Canal Winchester is term-limited this thime around (2008) in the 19th House District that is part of the 3rd. if Goodman wins, Flowers will be apponted to that Senate seat in the 3rd.