Can someone please tell me what has caused Tiberi's sudden "weakness?"

Okay, so I was never that connected and these days I'm totally out of the loop. But I'm still interested, and I'm hoping somebody can tell me what's going on...

During the last two election cycles, a major focus of this blog was putting pressure on Pat Tiberi, and if possible, defeating him and getting a Dem to represent OH-12. One of the major frustrations I had was that the national players were helping out significantly in dozens of other races (e.g. OH-1,2,15,16, etc.), but OH-12 was treated as a lost cause. As it turns out, even in years of huge Democratic gains, Tiberi won re-election by a solid enough margin to justify the decisions to allocate resources elsewhere.

But somehow, that thinking has obviously changed:

The DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) is the key party source for assistance in winning house elections. They are targeting 8 "vulnerable" GOP congressfolk with radio ads and 25 with live/robo calls dealing with health care reform. Pat is one of those being targeted by both campaigns.

The AFSCME and the affiliated lobbying group Health Care for America Now (HCAN) already have been targeting Tiberi and 6 others with television ads.

While the healthcare ads have been going on for the last two weeks, they've been joined by an even more targeted campaign by EDF (the Environmental Defense Fund), which is spending $150k on radio, tv, on-line and print ads criticizing 3 total GOP congressmen - Holden from PA, Souder from IN, and our friend Pat.

These ads are supposed to put lawmakers in a position where they change their position, or pay a price in lost votes next election year. When a lawmaker is likely to be in a tight race, the lawmakers position runs counter to the typical swing voter in his/her district, and the legislators vote could really swing a bill's passage, this is a no-lose strategy for the advertiser. Is that the situation here? I submit to you Tiberi's recent statement on healthcare (missing spaces preserved from original):

“Once again I’m baffled.President Barack Obama again repeated his refrain that if Americans liketheir current healthcare plan, they can keep it, if the Democrats governmenttake-over of healthcare becomes law. Irespectfully say, ‘Read the bill, Mr. President. Your claims simply aren’t true.’ Right there on pages 16 and 17 of the HouseDemocrats bill, the legislation says if healthcare plans don’t meetrequirements described by a government-appointed commissioner, they must changeor be fined. If your employer providesyou with the healthcare plan, and it doesn’t meet the commissioner’s approval,your employer will be taxed and you must enter the government exchangeprogram. It’s time the president readthe bill and quit misleading the American people. The Democrats’ plan is really a governmenttake-over of healthcare and Ohioans deserve real healthcare reform thatpreserves their choices. No one shouldbe forced into a government-run plan where bureaucrats, not doctors andpatients, make an individual’s personal healthcare decisions.”

He might say that "Ohioans deserve real healthcare reform," but it's clear from his rhetoric that he's not going to vote for any plan written by House Dems. So how about the energy bill, which seeks to drastically cut carbon emissions? Here's Pat with another one of his Newark Advocate op/eds:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi's energy bill is intended to make the planet greener, but it will leave Ohioans and other Midwesterners seeing red. The Waxman-Markey bill, also known as Cap and Trade, should be known as Cap and Tax. In an answer to the liberal left's demands, Pelosi and Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman have tied climate change legislation to energy reform mandates that have resulted in the Democrats proposing a national energy tax increase that would impose unprecedented energy mandates that result in higher costs for nearly every good and service individuals need...

Once again, I think Pat's made his position pretty clear.

Which means that all of this ad money is a waste, unless folks inside the beltway think they can win this seat in 2010. Given that they're in the loop and putting their money where their mouths are, I have to assume that there is new evidence that he can be beat. Is it a fantastic candidate they've recruited to run? Is it a possible scandal? Do they think that large numbers of African Americans will finally turn on him if he can be portrayed as anti-Obama? Is there new and unprecedented polling? Or is it simply that the Dems have already plucked all the low-hanging fruit among pickup opportunities?

Something has changed peoples minds. Seriously, email me if you know or can guess what it is.