Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Not So Fast With the Whole Q-Poll Numbers Look Good for Hillary

Quinnipiac has their first Ohio 2008 Poll out and people are talking. Many are talking about how Hillary's numbers are the strongest. I don't see it.

What I see when I look at these numbers is still very consistent with name recognition. Look at McCain:

41 vs. Obama 38 vs. Don't Know 18
41 vs. Edwards 44 vs. Don't know 11
42 vs. Clinton 46 vs. Don't know 8

We see McCain with remarkably consistent levels of support, and the 'don't knows' pulled to the Democrat, if the Dem is known. Except that McCain gets a little tick up from anti-Hillary votes.

This does not mean that Hillary "can't win Ohio," but that's a pretty silly hypothesis to be testing with polls at this point, anyway.


Jill said...

Couldn't agree with you more. Frankly, I think she's in big trouble in Ohio.

redhorse said...

I think, more importantly, is the high number of people that already have a formed opinion, good or not, of Hillary. Those numbers show rigidity and suggest her support might already be topped out.

More here>.

redhorse said...

Sorry about that; the comment screen is off-center.


bonobo said...

RH, we're saying the same thing, sort of. Hillary looks pretty close to maxed out. The thing that I'm focused on is the idea that not only do other candidates have a chance to gain support, the pattern in the data suggests that they are almost guaranteed to match Hillary once the carnival gets going in earnest.

redhorse said...

Agreed, we are saying the same thing.