Monday, March 03, 2008

The rest of my first page ballot

These statements are not endorsements.
For entertainment purposes only.

U.S. House 12th District: There are a number of good reasons to support Russ Goodwin, and I will enthusiastically do so in the general if he is the candidate. I'll be voting, however, for David Robinson. Mr. Robinson has been an active campaigner, raising more money that the better-known and better-connected Goodwin. This race won't get a lot of help from the party, so I'm encouraged by the vim and vigor Robinson has shown. I would also like to thank Aaron Dagres for sticking out his neck and putting so much time and effort in as the first declared candidate in this race.

Franklin County Commissioner: Joseph at Plunderbund has been on quite a crusade for Cindy Lazarus, spurred in large part by the heavy handed tactics of the FCDP on behalf of her opponent. One might guess that I would agree, based on the fact that I have been indicating support for a non-endorsed candidate in each of the two races I've written about so far. In this race, however, I think the case for John O'Grady is stronger than the case for Ms. Lazarus. I think his campaign was smart early on to focus more on the endorsements from individual Dems, which made the party endorsement seem more like an acknowledgment than an attempt to influence.

U.S. President: I don't know. Given how close the two are on all major policy issues, folks must be voting for other reasons. Some possible differentiators:

1. Likeability/Have a Beer With Factor
2. Gut Feeling/Trust
3. Electability
4. Guessing at Difference Between Campaign and Presidency

I'm not a fan of using 1 or 2. I don't think they are reliable indicators of much of anything. I can certainly see why Obama would have an advantage in these domains, and I think that plays a big role in his campaign gaining traction. I'm also not a big fan of #3. If you are voting for a candidate you like less because you think some set of other folks would like them more, then you are betting on the validity of your own bizarreness. You are not, however, as different from "normal" folks as you think you are. If you don't like your candidate, neither will they. Having said that, however, I think Obama has the clearer shot at McCain than does Clinton.
So now I'm at #4, which should be my guide, even though I'm a lousy guesser. Ask yourself these questions: Who is the Secretary of State/Defense/Energy and A.G. in the Obama administration? In the Clinton Administration? What is the first thing you imagine Clinton vetoing? How about Obama? Who wins and who loses in the first Obama budget? The first Clinton budget?

In 2000 I had no idea how bad W would turn out to be. In retrospect, if I could have known about Ashcroft, Rumsfeld, etc. it would have been a lot clearer. Knowing about Cheney should have been enough. I think everyone knows the type of folks Clinton would appoint. Most, but not all, would be solid traditional Dems. Obama... I have no idea. His campaign is floating the idea of a Republican Secretary of Defense (to be sure, many Repubs view Hagel as the prototypical RINO, but still...), and has issued a lot of verbiage devoted to post-partisanship. On the other hand, a number of Obama supporters (and also conservatives) seem to believe that Obama is the left-wing version of W, someone who uses his personal appeal to convince moderates that he's one of them, even as he'll be putting the most progressive government of the last half century together. Me, I can't decide which is more likely. Some might say I should vote my hopes rather than my fears, and they probably don't care that my hopes are their fears.

I fully expect Obama to be the nominee. I also think that the enthusiasm that Obama has inspired may well be the difference in November. As such, there's a part of me that just wants to get out of the way.

Talk to me tomorrow.

1 comment:

Aaron Dagres said...


David Robinson ran an amazing campaign, in the face of an endorsement of Russ Goodwin by Franklin County's Democratic Party, and last minute Ohio Democratic Party funding for Goodwin slate cards, to come out victorious. David Robinson has run a clean and positive campaign from day one, and it is now time to rally behind Mr. Robinson as we head towards our ultimate goal of removing Pat Tiberi from office. David Robinson has shown that he is our party's best shot in November.

I want to thank all of the wonderful people that I have encountered along this long journey that begun back in October. To all of the volunteers and contributors that dedicated their time and funds to this campaign, I am forever indebted to you. I am truly proud of the hard work that so many people have put into seeing this campaign through.

I urge you all to throw your full support behind our candidate for the OH-12, and our next Congressman from Ohio's 12th congressional district, DAVID ROBINSON.