Thursday, October 30, 2008

Every once in a while, I traffic in rumors

I've been given some numbers. I've asked around and found that at least one other person has heard a similar story. Consider this to not be worth the paper it's printed on. But here goes:

Tiberi - 49
Robinson - 44
Other - 1
Undecided - 6

The original source of these numbers is supposedly internal polling on the GOP side. If true, that would put Tiberi pulling less than 50% and with a lead most likely within the margin of error. For those who don't normally obsess over polling, this would be a great result for Robinson, much better than the punditocracy would have predicted. Accepting these numbers means that with a strong finish, good GOTV, and only a little bit of good fortune, Robinson pulls one of the bigger nationwide upsets of the night. Then again, Robinson has consistently been underrated this year.

Same source has Garland and McGregor tied, with Marian Harris pulling away in the 19th.

Anybody with more reliable numbers is welcome encouraged to email me.

6 comments:

Bill said...

I have seen polling as well in the 12th and 20th OHIO house race....I have to say the numbers are close to the polls I have seen.

Anonymous said...

What numbers do you have bill?

Andrew said...

Last night at the live taping of Columbus On The Record Terry Casey (Republican Strategist) and the other panel members basically agreed that while Tiberi would likely pull this one out this may be the last time that seat remains republican for a while. Problem being that Robinson isn't using TV time and that's a killer for local candidates in races like this. That doesn't confirm or deny those numbers but Casey (who is working on Stivers campaign now) seemed to admit that it was closer than might otherwise have been expected.

Anonymous said...

RCCC numbers show Tiberi by 11.

Jack said...

DCCC numbers show Robinson within 7 points.....

Bill said...

Here are the numbers I saw……

Tiberi- 48%

Robinson- 44%

Other - 2%

Undecided – 6%


As tho the RCCC numbers if they are true…..an 11 point lead by Tiberi means that Robinson has cut that lead in half between Mid Sept and now and by 15% since Aug. I know by looking at the numbers from early voting that the Dems are way ahead of the GOP and that would translate into a big lead for Robinson going into Tuesday……..I am sure Tiberi will make up votes on Tuesday the question is will he be able to pull it out. You have to remember that this time last week most of the experts were thinking that Tiberi would win with ease…..now it looks like this is a race and Robinson is looking good. How did Robinson get to this point against all odds……the people that are helping him with his ground game as well as the hard work that Robinson has done over the past 8 months…….I know for a fact that Rodger Moore along with others have put together a great GOTV plan and ground game for Robinson and if they can implement this plan and a little luck I would not be surprised to see a big upset in the 12th on Tuesday night…….we shall see….as to TV I really feel that it is not as effective as it has been in the past…..People see what it really happening and they are mad at the folks who are in Congress now…….I have been doing political work for the past 30 years and I can truly tell you that a wave of change is happening and if you have D behind your name this time around look for good things to happen…all politics are local…….