Shamansky and Tiberi in Statistical Tie in Independent Poll

Majority Watch/Constituent Dynamics has been polling competetive House races all year, but they finally released their first poll of OH-12. Others got the news before I did (sometimes a nice dinner out with the family gets in the way of the scoop), but they seem to have missed a very major point: Although the weighted sample shows Tiberi ahead 51-46, the Margin of Error is +/- 3.09, meaning that the margin on the spread is actually 6.2, meaning that this poll puts the race within the margin of error, even with a 1000+ representative sample.

That's what they call a statistical dead heat.

The crosstabs are strange, with younger women( less than 60 years old), typically a Dem constituency, going +19 for Tiberi. It's even stranger given that men in this age range are only a +11 for the Pa(rro)t (The 60+ crowd is overwhelmingly pro-Shamansky). Overall, this is a much rosier picture than the pulled-out-of-my-rear-end guess from this weekend.

This is no longer a longshot. This is going down to the wire. We can do this.

My Absentee Voter Story, Strange Epilogue #1

The piece I wrote recounting in detail my experience at the Franklin County BOE on the first day of absentee voting is by far the most read post this blog has had. I had no plans to follow it up, and I've resisted writing election integrity pieces because many others are doing that at a level I couldn't attempt to match without losing focus on the things I want to blog about this season.

But...

I received my absentee ballot in the mail today. You may wonder why, three weeks after I cast my absentee ballot, I am receiving a ballot in the mail. I certainly am. At the moment I am more concerned, however, with the pink piece of paper that came with the ballot that says:

ATTENTION ABSENTEE VOTER: The United States District Court has enjoined the enforcement of certain provisions of Ohio law that would otherwise require qualified electors to provide proof of identity when applying to vote by absent voter's ballot or when casting their absent voter's ballot.

Please be advised that you are not required to provide proof of identify (sic) when you complete your aplication to vote by absent voter's ballot nor when you complete the absent voter's identification envelope prior to returning your voted ballot. (emphasis in original)

For those of you not keeping score at home, the US District Court put a restraining order on the Boards of election preventing them from enforcing the new voter ID law. SOS Blackwell declined to intervene, but AG Petro insisted that he had standing to appeal the order. After initially being turned down, an appeals court agreed and also agreed to lift the order for now, putting the Voter ID law back into effect, pending further appeals.

As far as I can tell, that means that if I were to follow the advice of the Franklin County Board of Elections, and not provide Identification, my ballot could actually end up being invalid, and potentially thrown out because the I.D. requirement had been reinstated.

If anyone would like to explain to me that I'm wrong about this additional wrench in the barrelful of monkeys that is the Ohio election process, I would love to have my fears allayed.

P.S. because I have already voted, I'm not sure I have standing to officially complain about this. If I'm wrong about that, I'd like to know that, too.

The Dispatch Editorial Board Is Guilty of Ugly Smear Tactics in Denouncing Non-Existent Ugly Smear Tactics

I wrote a letter to the editors of the Dispatch on Friday, encouraging them to give one example, one single example, of the "shrill and ill-considered attacks" that they accused Emily Kreider of making, as a follow-up to the same challenge I posted to readers of this blog earlier this week.

I have yet to get a response.

I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt, that the Board wasn't engaging in an unsubstantiated smear campaign of their own. Perhaps they had seen something that I hadn't (highly doubtful given the focus I've had on this campaign), or perhaps I had misinterpreted a statement that we had both seen.

My doubt, and the concomitant benefit thereof, have been reduced to next to nothing. The Dispatch, in decrying smears today, called out six candidates in three races. They claim that both Kilroy and Pryce have been smeared, and give examples. They claim that Brown and Dewine have been smeared, which is a view so ingrained in the CW as to hardly be worth discussing. They then state that Pat Tiberi and Bob Shamansky have both been smeared, and should be ashamed of themselves.

Wrong. Pat Tiberi has not been smeared. The Dispatch is just plain lying. Every single ad put out by the Shamansky campaign is available for your perusal here. There is no smear. The harshest statements (by far) in those ads comes from the editorial staffs of the Delaware Gazette and Suburban News Publications, independent entities which are outside of the candidates' control.

This set of unsubstantiated lies and smears by the Dispatch Board about non-existent lies and smears by Democrats up against true mud-slinging Republicans is shameful. The Board has a whole lot more to apologize for than some of the folks they're pointing fingers at.

From the mailbox

ProgressOhio is a younger site than this one. But unlike the guy running this one, the people who run ProgressOhio actually know what they're doing. So, if you haven't taken my hints and suggestions yet, consider taking theirs:

You’ve read the blogs, watched the YouTube clips, and signed every petition you could. You’re as fed up as we are with the corruption plaguing our state. You know that with Election Day less than two weeks away, the stakes in Ohio couldn’t be higher.



And you don’t need us to tell you that this is the best chance we’ve had in years to turn the tide.



www.gotvohio.org



We are on the verge of bringing sweeping change to Ohio’s electoral landscape, from the statehouse elections to the Governor’s race. But turnout in non-Presidential years can be tricky, and that’s why Progress Ohio has partnered with America Votes Ohio, a historic coalition of the most active grassroots organizations in the state, to get out the vote! 2006 could be the turning point in the progressive movement – and we need YOU to be a part of it!



We are calling and canvassing voters every single day through the election. By signing up to donate just four hours on “Get Out The Vote” weekend (Nov 4th - Nov 7th), you’ll be able to talk to over a hundred voters!



Don’t wake up November 8th wishing you had done more. Together, let’s make this election about the change Ohioans need and deserve!



Sign up to join the historic effort today!

www.gotvohio.org

Thanks!

Brian Rothenberg,
Executive Director
ProgressOhio.org

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