Monday, October 30, 2006

Shamansky and Tiberi in Statistical Tie in Independent Poll

Majority Watch/Constituent Dynamics has been polling competetive House races all year, but they finally released their first poll of OH-12. Others got the news before I did (sometimes a nice dinner out with the family gets in the way of the scoop), but they seem to have missed a very major point: Although the weighted sample shows Tiberi ahead 51-46, the Margin of Error is +/- 3.09, meaning that the margin on the spread is actually 6.2, meaning that this poll puts the race within the margin of error, even with a 1000+ representative sample.

That's what they call a statistical dead heat.

The crosstabs are strange, with younger women( less than 60 years old), typically a Dem constituency, going +19 for Tiberi. It's even stranger given that men in this age range are only a +11 for the Pa(rro)t (The 60+ crowd is overwhelmingly pro-Shamansky). Overall, this is a much rosier picture than the pulled-out-of-my-rear-end guess from this weekend.

This is no longer a longshot. This is going down to the wire. We can do this.

1 comment:

nascar said...

What is even better is the Franklin county part of the 12th numbers. It looks good for the 20th house and the 3rd Ohio Senate Dist.

Franklin County 12th Numbers:

Shamansky 49%
Tiberi 48%

So this tells me Kreider sould be doing well.