Monday, September 24, 2007

Finally, a name in OH-12

Jerid at BSB is reporting that Columbus City Councilman Kevin Boyce is being encouraged to run against Pat Tiberi next year in the 12th district race. Interestingly, Jerid is not saying that Mr. Boyce has expressed any interest in the race. He's not saying that anyone has spoken directly with Mr. Boyce about running. As a matter of fact, Jerid says that a) the Dems have been looking for a candidate in the 12th, and that b) Dems like 12th-district resident Boyce's future, leaving the reader to connect some dots.

I like Kevin Boyce. I would certainly support his run were he to undertake one. But I don't think he can win in 2008. People keep saying, and they are correct, that the right candidate, running the right campaign, in the right context, would have a better than even shot at knocking off Pat T. Unfortunately, my idea of the right candidate, as I've said repeatedly, is a suburban female, someone like Marilee Chinnici-Zuercher or a (carpet-bagging) Paula Brooks. A big chunk of the 12th sits in urban Franklin County. The Dem candidate always wins that part of the district. A candidate like Ed Brown with no money and a Libertarian-style platform still pulls better than 33% when he runs because of straight ticket urban and inner ring voters. A candidate like Bob Shamansky, with 1000 times the financing gets less than 45% of the vote, because of Delaware and Western Licking County straight ticket R voters. The only way to win the district, as it is currently drawn, is to win over at least some independents in Delaware and Licking, and unfortunately being a male Columbus City Councilman is about the worst bio one can have if that's your objective.

Jerid says that there is a long line of potential candidates in the 12th. It's certainly possible. The DCCC has never returned any of my emails, and none of the people I have cornered have ever admitted knowing of any names under consideration for recruitment. People tell Jerid things, though, so I'll trust him. The thing is, I'm a bit worried that we are giving up on '08 and even '10 here in the 12th, and waiting for redistricting to split Delaware off from eastern Franklin County, at which point a still very young Boyce would make an ideal candidate.

Of course, I'd be more than happy to retrospectively mock my stupidity 14 months from now.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

In other words, he's saying absolutely nothing.

BuckeyeStateBlog said...

Connect the dots friends.